An Organized Crime Model of Illicit Trade in Pangolin Scales and Elephant Ivory

Overview

What you will study

An Organized Crime Model of Illicit Trade in Pangolin Scales and Elephant Ivory offered by American University of Sharjah (AUS) will discuss the following subject:

Organized crime syndicates smuggle mixed contraband via shipping companies that use their licenses and sea routes to screen illegal products with legitimate exports. Port seizures have revealed that pangolin scales and elephant ivory are shipped together and disguised using scrap plastics, wood products, or frozen meat items. Pangolin scales are used in traditional eastern medicine and possessing carved ivory continues to be associated with societal status in East Asia. Illicit trade threatens the longevity of such species. I develop a model of an organized crime manager who plans for contraband shipments based on an expected net return. The model numerically yields a number of planned shipments for variations in the content of scales and ivory, and a contraband-contingent probability of detection by port authorities. Planned shipments are influenced by detection probabilities and the increasing content of one contraband type at the expense of the other– suggesting a range of substitutability between contraband types. A dynamic population model of pangolins and elephants is coupled with the syndicate manager’s model to depict and discuss probable extinction scenarios and the realized returns of the syndicate.